President Donald Trump has taken a significant lead over Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in Iowa, signaling that Trump’s support in “fly-over” country is stronger than most polling has indicated.
What are the details?
The final Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll of the 2020 election season found that Trump leads Biden by a whopping seven points ahead of Election Day, 48% to 41%.
Among the remaining respondents, 3% said they were voting for someone other than Trump or Biden, 2% said they were undetermined, and 5% did not want to reveal which candidate they support.
The poll is conducted by the highly-respected Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, and is known as the “gold standard” of political polls.
What is most significant about the poll is that, just several weeks ago, the same survey found that Trump and Biden were tied in Iowa at 47% each.
According to J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., Trump is once again winning over independents, which explains the significant bump in his support in Iowa.
“The president is holding demographic groups that he won in Iowa four years ago, and that would give someone a certain level of comfort with their standing,” Selzer explained, the Des Moines Register reported. “There’s a consistent story in 2020 to what happened in 2016.”
“I think that the key to what’s happening with President Trump is that he is leading with independents,” she added. “That is a group that in Iowa in our September poll looked like it was swinging to Joe Biden, and it’s come back to be a Trump asset.”
Selzer said the gender gap — in which men are more likely to support Trump and women more likely to support Biden — has also narrowed in Trump’s favor.
“We saw a huge gender gap that benefited Biden in September,” Selzer said. “And while there is still a big gap among men — they’re going for Trump by a 24-point margin — it’s just a 9-point margin for Biden with women. And so there’s just an imbalance there. Before, we saw mirror images of each other.”
The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll also spelled good news for Sen. Joni Ernst (R), who is locked in a tight battle for control over the Senate seat she currently holds.
The latest poll found that Ernst leads Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield by four points, 46% to 42%. The showing is also a turnabout from September’s poll, which found Ernst trailing Greenfield by three points.